Week 11

Today’s lesson topic is “Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for
Understanding What Comes Next”, which is also the last formal lesson for the course. This topic is special in a way as it is least heavy in content and is one that does not deal with specific types of technology and its impacts but rather techniques to assess technology and forecasting the key areas of opportunities of the future.

We started off the lesson with a quote by Charles Kettering, “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” I guess it is simple but not something that people realise and put into practice often. What I gain from that statement is that there will be rewards for the people who put thought and effort into planning and forecasting the future as it gives them an advantage over the people who do not. This is also reflected in the African proverb: “Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today”.

Some other ideas that were discussed in class were the drivers for the technology assessment and forecasting. One point brought up was the need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technological innovation might bring, economically, socially, ethically and environmentally. The ability to assess the potential of a technology and to forecast the future needs of society can is extremely important not only in the corporate world, but also for governments to make appropriate policies. Another interesting point brought up in one of the videos shown is that strategies fail because people get the future wrong. The key to staying ahead of competition is to discover shifts that competitors don’t see.

The key takeaway for me is to avoid being trapped in the present.  One way to progress is to imagine how everything would work out the way I want it to be. There is also a strategic advantage if we know how to work back from the future rather than working forward from the present. I feel that this is a rather complex idea and deserves more discussion. My understanding of that is to focus on what you want to achieve and find ways to reach there, rather than just trying to progress without the end in mind.

Rating for lesson: 7/10

- Zhishu of G22

Week 10

This week's topic is on Emerging Technology and World Change. The major distinction for this week's lesson is that it is one where scope is wider than usual and the presenters can virtually choose an article on any emerging technology. The discussion that we had today were on multiple emerging and seemingly inconceivable technologies to a lay person.

Reading 4 covers 10 technologies that can signicantly impact the world. What interests me in reading 4 is the point that technology is just 1 discipline in leading a more rewarding life. We have to holistically consider other disciplines such as psychology, spirituality and religion, which tends to be overlooked. Another point that the author brought is that each technology holds both a potential for beneficial  and also for abuse. One very good example is nuclear energy.

A quote by George Bernard Shaw:

“ You see things; and you say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’” I guess such an attitude is not commonly inherent in most people. This is why there are more followers than innovators.

We also discussed the drivers of the development of emerging and future and technologies. I learnt that there it can be either market driven or technology driven. The former referring to unmet market opporunity and need and the latter referring to new insights and discoveries leading to previously unimagined needs. Another key driver is the mass media and advertising where the perceptions of need is influenced. An interested idea that was introduced to us by Prof Shahi is the confluence of the 4 "smarts" in order to make an emerging technology sucesssful. The 4 "smarts" refer to people, ideas, money and alliances. A combination of all these 4 factors is necessary to make an innovation work. The concept of marketing vs sales was also brought up where marketing is a "pull" strategy to make people want the product and sales is a "push" strategy to bring the product to the consumers.

The bulk of the lesson was mainly on the different kinds of emerging technologies and what kinds of possibilities it present. Technologies such as claytronics(mutating matter), plastics replacing silicon in electronics and wireless energy transmission almost seem magical and inconceivable. However the fact is that these technologies are currently being developed and have shown to work. Ultimately, change management and the implementation process is the determinant in the feasibility of such a technology.

A key takeaway from this lesson would be derived from a quote by Kahli Gibran: "There is a space between man's imagination and man's attainment that may only be traversed by his longing." What that means to me is that anything is possible, as long as one dares to dream and has the desire and thirst to achieve his dream. Many of the technologies we use in our everyday lives would seem impossible if we brought it back in time. And those those that we see now as impossible such as time travelling could very well be possible one day.

Personal rating for the session - 8/10 for its interesting content.

-ZhiShu of G22

Week 9

In this week’s lesson, we were introduced to the issue of energy and world change, which I feel is an issue that is pertinent to virtually anyone as we are currently living in a world faced with an energy crisis. The issue of fossil fuels and alternative energy sources has been much discussed in the recent years.  We discussed the drivers for global energy change, the key considerations in the energy landscape and policy tools for facilitating change to a green economy.

An interesting idea that was brought up during the lesson was the fact that Singapore have nearly zero capability to produce its own energy due to a lack of natural resource. Prof Shahi suggested that we should be spending more effort to look into solar and tidal energy sources as Singapore has the suitable environment for it. Furthermore, in one of the oral presentations, osmotic energy was also introduced and was identified as being suitable for Singapore due to our coastal surroundings. It is evident from all this information that a lot can be developed further for the energy industry in Singapore.

Another interesting point that was mentioned was that renewable energy source was actually the primary source of energy some 300 years ago. Only 150 years ago, the human race discovered coal and other forms of fossil fuels, began burning them and eventually leading to our reliance on it today. Even though it is a much more efficient source of energy, looking at the bigger picture, it does not make sense that we are burning a valuable resource that took millions of years to produce which could be used in many other applications.

The key takeaway today was that there is a rising global energy consumption which is inevitable due to economic progression. As such, there is a dire need for sustainability in the realm of energy. In addition, fossil fuels also have an impact on the environment in contributing to carbon emission. We must be open to new technologies and approaches to increase efficiency and reduce pollution in order to overcome the energy crisis.

I guess an issue that I felt deserved further discussion was whether we should focus our effort on one promising alternative energy source or continue to diversify our choices. In the oral presentations, many different energy technologies such as osmotic pressure, algae and nuclear fusion was brought up. With so many choices, should we eliminate those we deem less effective and expand on those we believe to have a better future?

Personal rating for this lesson would be 7.5/10. We found ourselves rushing for time at the end of the lesson.